8 months to Iranian presidential elections

8 months to presidential elections in Iran and things are still unclear. There are doubts about candidates, whether the loosely-knit reformist front, conservatives or hardliners.

Talks revolve around return of Khatami -mostly by radical reformists- to polarize the competition between Khatami and Ahmadinejhad. Doomed to fail (I will explain why in the following). Another group of reformists who are more moderate and ready to bargain with the opposite camp support Mehdi Karrobi, former spokesman of the parliament, who unexpectedly stood in third step in 2005 elections, mainly because of his plan to allot fifty thousand Tomans to every +18 Iranian.

Among the pro-Ahmadinejhad hardliners and conservatives things are also unclear. Rumors around are about a national unity cabinet to be formed by conservatives and reformists to stop Ahmadinejhad from another round of irresponsible presidency (hot air), tacit support of Supreme Leader for Ahmadinejhad’s second round presidency, and potential candidates such as Qalibaf (mayor of Tehran and former chief of police forces), Velayati (F.M. in Rafsanjani’s cabinet), Hasan Rouhani (former head of national security council and chief nuclear negotiator during Khatami’s presidency).

Khatami’s return is not such a good idea, at least if he’s going to be the same Khatami of 1997-2005, when he had huge popular support but his personal traits -making him an epitome for lack of courage and withdrawal, despite his honesty- plus grave mistakes of the reformist front, first disillusioned their massive supporters, and later led to their step-by-step expulsion from power. And definitely the conservatives won’t let Ahmadinejhad and Khatami to be the only contenders. They want their share of cake. Even if otherwise, it's more likely that they take Ahmadinejhad’s side rather than Khatami. Khatami is advocated by radical reformists heavily distrusted –and despised- by conservatives.

In some aspects Karrobi is a better option among potential reformist candidates. Unlike Khatami he’s not an intellectual, but a down-to-earth politician with respectable background, who uses his influence and bargaining power to advance his agenda. And unlike radical reformists he doesn’t make big promises, which are only to be left unfulfilled later with manifold excuses. Probably the weak point for Karrobi is the overlap between his potential supporters and that of Ahmadinejhad; since President’s recent controversial plan of ‘economic transformation’ targets those voters Karrobi tried to attract with his fifty thousand Tomans plan.

From a personal point of view, I prefer a candidate that secures Ayatollah Khamenei’s trust. Trust, whether from the Supreme Leader or other latent centers of power in Iran, is the key factor to success for the next Iranian president. Trust is the thing that has emboldened Ahmadinejhad and his team to carry out some of the most adventurous moves in post-revolution Iranian politics; from openly inviting Americans to negotiation, writing letter to Western leaders, supporting friendship with the Israeli nation to dissolving key economic institutions, criticizing key religious leaders, launching the economic transformation plan and allowing for women’s entrance into football stadiums. That’s why I prefer conservative political figures like Larijani, technocrat Qalibaf or Haddad Adel (ex-spokesman of the parliament and a kinsman of the Leader) to be the next Iranian president. They –too- are trusted by centers power while avoiding irrational policies of Ahmadinejhad.

Let's defer our wish for democracy for some while. What we need now most is a functional government.

P.S: I don’t really feel like blogging these days.

P.S II: I was reading my analysis of 2005 presidential competition, when Ahmadinejhad’s presidency looked like a tasteless joke. Will next years election will be as shocking as this one?